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The college football world was wishing for a March Madness type of feel for the first-ever 12-team College Football Playoff, with upsets galore. Instead, the four first-round matchups underwhelmed, offering plenty of time for holiday shopping. Favorites went an ideal 4-0 versus the spread, consisting of three relatively non-competitive performances by underdogs Indiana, SMU and Tennessee. Sportsbooks and the public don’t appear to believe so. At least in two cases.

Both Penn State-Boise State and Texas-Arizona State feature double-digit spreads favoring the lower-seeded Nittany Lions and Longhorns. And the latter has been an especially popular choice with the general public. The Longhorns -12.5 is the most-bet side at BetMGM nationally in regards to overall dollars as of Monday afternoon.

"All the cash is coming in on Texas,” Seamus Magee, a BetMGM trader, wrote in a text to The Athletic. “We require Arizona State to cover +13.5.“

The interest for the Longhorns extends to the futures market too. Remember that huge $1.5 million wager on Texas to win all of it at +390 chances? The ticket is still out there at Caesars Sportsbook.

Interestingly, the Longhorns’ opponent, Arizona State - the most significant underdog amongst the College Football quarterfinal matches - is getting the most love from sharp gamblers. The Athletic talked to numerous bookmakers who had taken sharp action on No. 4 Arizona State - which had gotten as high as a 14-point underdog at some books versus No. 5 Texas - to press the line down to -12.5 or -12.

John Murray, the executive director at The Westgate Las Vegas SuperBook, informed us he got a wager on Arizona State +13.5 from a “extremely highly regarded player.“

Despite the fact that respected cash has come in on Arizona State to cover, sportsbooks will likely need the Sun Devils to do just that, as are piling on Texas.

"We would like to see ASU cover, and then Texas win the video game, so we get our Arizona State liability off the futures book,” Magee added.

While the Texas game will be huge for the books, it isn’t the only game in the area. We chatted with several bookies to break down where the wagering action is on the other three College Football quarterfinal matchups. 6 Penn State (-11, 53) at No. 3 Boise State

This video game opened Penn State -10.5 at the majority of sportsbooks and has actually approached a little to a consensus of -11. sports betting on the spread is relatively split at most sportsbooks. The overall dollars bet differs by book, as 52% of bets and 79% of the cash at BetMGM nationally are on Boise State -11, while 56% of bets but just 42% of the money at DraftKings is on Boise State -11.5. Penn State to cover is presently the 2nd most popular CFP wager in regards to total tickets at BetMGM books.

"We opened Penn State -10.5 and are resting on Penn State -11,” Thomas Gable, sportsbook director at The Borgata in Atlantic City, informed The Athletic. “I wouldn’t be surprised if this line sneaks up a little bit more before kickoff, however I presently welcome any Boise State money.“

Ohio State got the Oregon 2nd opportunity it desired. Are the Buckeyes prepared for vengeance?

No. 8 Ohio State (-2.5, 55.5) vs. No. 1 Oregon

Perhaps most surprising to the public is that No. 1 seed Oregon is an underdog against No. 8 Ohio State. These groups met back on Oct. 7 in Eugene, and Oregon won 32-31 as a 3.5-point home pet dog.

So why is OSU preferred?

Several oddsmakers The Athletic talked to before the CFP preliminary had Ohio State atop their power rankings, and the lookahead lines for this theoretical matchup were Ohio State -1 or -1.5. One oddsmaker pointed out that Ohio State playing up to its power rating in its dominant first-round win over Tennessee also shaped his opening line.

Ohio State opened as a 1- or 1.5-point preferred (depending upon the sportsbook) in this game before reputable money pushed it to the present line of -2.5. A slightly higher majority of wagers at numerous sportsbooks, roughly 60%, are on the Ducks to cover, while close to 60% of the cash has actually come in on the Buckeyes. This will likely be the highest-handle video game of the four come kickoff.

"We did take some respected money at -1.5, rapidly went to -2.5 where it’s stayed,” Gable said. “It’s decent two-way action at that number today. The total has actually increased three points from 52.5 to 55.5, which has been the most significant relocation of any of the totals. Money has actually all been on the over up until now.

Joe Brennan, the CEO of Prime sports betting, a sportsbook in Ohio and New Jersey that caters to sharp wagerers, told The Athletic that “Ohio State opened as a 1-point favorite, and instantly our Ohio wagerers thought we were too low. Our opening rate of Ohio State -1 has actually been driven up to -2.5 and the overall from 52 to 55.“

He did note, however, that the book had seen substantial buyback at the present line of Ohio State -2.5 and that 52% of the overall dollars at his book were taking the points with the Ducks.

GO DEEPER

The most likely upsets for the College Football Playoff’s 2nd round

No. 7 Notre Dame vs. No. 2 Georgia (-1, 45)

The favorite turned in this video game, as Notre Dame opened a 1.5-point preferred and is currently a 1- or 1.5-point underdog at sportsbooks.

What triggered the line turn? Basically, the wagering action.
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Although Georgia’s beginning QB Carson Beck is out for the season and has been replaced by relative unidentified Gunner Stockton, bettors are gravitating towards the Bulldogs.

Georgia to cover is the most popular against the spread wager at BetMGM books nationally in terms of ticket count (second-most popular by overall dollars bet), and it has been “one-way traffic on Georgia,” according to Magee. Nearly 70% of bets are on the Bulldogs at numerous sportsbooks.
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